Regional framskrivning av antall innvandrere 2011-2040. Modellen REGINN, forutsetninger og resultater

Abstract

Denne rapporten omtaler framskrivninger av antall innvandrere fordelt etter bostedsregion i Norge. Som i de tidligere innvandrerframskrivningene på nasjonalt nivå er både innvandrere og norskfødte barn av to innvandrerforeldre med, og disse to kategoriene er videre delt inn i tre grupper etter landbakgrunn. Det er laget en egen regional inndeling til formålet, med i alt 31 regioner. Grensene mellom dem følger i stor grad fylkesgrensene, men de omfatter også enkeltkommuner eller grupper av kommuner. Spesielt de største byene er skilt ut som egne regioner. Basert på denne inndelingen ser vi i rapporten hvordan utviklingen i innvandreres bosettingsmønster har vært gjennom de tiårene vi har bak oss, noe som gir en bakgrunn for å tolke framskrivningsresultatene. ---- This report presents the first regional projections of the population of immigrants and their children born in Norway. The immigrants are divided into three groups based on country background. A newly developed model REGINN is applied for the projections. The report includes descriptions of the main principles of the model. The regional projections are based on a division of the country into 31 regions. One aim has been to avoid too small regions, and at the same time follow the borders between administrative regional units, as the 19 Norwegian counties. In some counties urban municipalities with immigrant populations of a substantial size are separate regions. The report describes some broad lines of the settlement of immigrants in Norway during the period 1970-2010, whereas the trends in international and domestic migration are studied for a shorter period and with focus on the period 2006-2010. Most of the assumptions on the regional level are based on observations of this 5-year period prior to the base year 2011. The assumptions of fertility, mortality and international migration are consistent with assumptions on the national level in the official national projection published in June 2011. This means that in each alternative of the new regional projection, the figures sum up to the national figures which were published half a year ago. For this reason it is the regional patterns that are emphasized in the descriptions of past trends.