How does temperature vary over time?: evidence on the stationary and fractal nature of temperature fluctuations
Peer reviewed, Journal article
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Original versionJournal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). 2020, . https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12557
The paper analyses temperature data from 96 selected weather stations world wide, and from reconstructed northern hemisphere temperature data over the last two millennia. Using a non‐parametric test, we find that the stationarity hypothesis is not rejected by the data. Subsequently, we investigate further properties of the data by means of a statistical model known as the fractional Gaussian noise (FGN) model. Under stationarity FGN follows from the fact that the observed data are obtained as temporal aggregates of data generated at a finer (basic) timescale where temporal aggregation is taken over a ‘large’ number of basic units. The FGN process exhibits long‐range dependence. Several tests show that both the reconstructed and most of the observed data are consistent with the FGN model.