Demographic forecasting with a dynamic stochastic microsimulation model
Working paper
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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2672987Utgivelsesdato
1993-03Metadata
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Sammendrag
This paper summarizes some of the main features of demographic microsimulatiori modeling, including a comparison with other demographic forecasting techniques. It also presents a dynamic stochastic microsimulation model, MOSART, which projects the population, labor force, and education level. This model illustrates some of the basic principles of forecasting by means of microsimulation. The two most distinctive features of the model is that it is based on a large real sample of the population (as opposed to a synthetic sample) and that it is programmed in an object oriented language. An appendix gives a brief general survey of the use of rnicrosimulation models in Norway.
Beskrivelse
This is a revised version of a paper which was presented at the Helsinki Seminar on Microsimulation Models in Helsinki March 16-17, 1992.