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dc.contributor.authorBoug, Pål
dc.contributor.authorCappelen, Ådne
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-27T11:02:37Z
dc.date.available2021-08-27T11:02:37Z
dc.date.created2021-08-24T14:06:23Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.citationEmpirical Economics. 2021, .en_US
dc.identifier.issn0377-7332
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2771561
dc.description.abstractWe analyse the behaviour of OPEC as a group by formulating a theoretical model that encompasses the perfect competition model and various forms of the imperfect competition model. By confronting the theoretical model with quarterly data for the period from 1992 to 2013 within the context of a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model, we find support for the imperfect competition hypothesis regarding the output decisions of OPEC. We also find that a dynamic equilibrium correction model with imperfect competition is stable in-sample. However, a forecasting exercise for the period from 2014 to 2018 reveals that the model breaks down following the November 2014 meeting at which OPEC decided to keep its supply unchanged despite the huge oil price drop in advance. The model systematically underpredicts OPEC production over the forecast period and by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day at the end of 2016. During 2018, however, the model forecasts OPEC production quite well. Our findings suggest that the behaviour of OPEC did indeed change significantly after the November 2014 meeting.en_US
dc.description.abstracten_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse-DelPåSammeVilkår 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.no*
dc.subjectOPECen_US
dc.subjectØkonomiske modelleren_US
dc.subjectModel Construction and Estimationen_US
dc.subjectModel Evaluation, Validation, and Selectionen_US
dc.subjectDynamic forecastingen_US
dc.subjectMonopolyen_US
dc.subjectCointegrated vector autoregressive modelen_US
dc.titleDid OPEC change its behaviour after the November 2014 meeting?en_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210en_US
dc.source.pagenumber21en_US
dc.source.journalEmpirical Economicsen_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02104-5
dc.identifier.cristin1928362
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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