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dc.contributor.authorHolmøy, Erling
dc.contributor.authorHeide, Kim Massey
dc.date.accessioned2011-11-22T16:51:58Z
dc.date.available2011-11-22T16:51:58Z
dc.date.issued2005
dc.identifier.issn1892-753x
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/180213
dc.description.abstractNorway's petroleum wealth has become considerably more liquid and thereby visible to the public since the mid 1990s. In the policy debate transformation of wealth is often confused with ordinary income. Such a misconception may have contributed to de-industrialisation through real appreciation beyond what is sustainable in a long run perspective. Since re-industrialisation is typically considered difficult, it is important to estimate a norm for sustainable wage growth. In Norway the textbook model of the Small Open Economy (SOE) has often been used for this purpose. We argue that this model neglects important aspects of the Norwegian economy. Instead we use a large scale dynamic CGEmodel to estimate sustainable paths for wage growth and the activity in the traded goods sector, especially manufacturing. Under plausible assumptions we find that about 0.5 percent annual reduction of manufacturing employment is sustainable. The real appreciation over the last 7 years has been substantially above a sustainable trend. Keywords: Dutch Disease, multi-sector growth, dynamic CGE-modelling.no_NO
dc.language.isoengno_NO
dc.publisherStatistics Norway, Research Departmentno_NO
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion Papers;No. 413
dc.subjectDutch Diseaseno_NO
dc.subjectNorwayno_NO
dc.subjectPetroleum wealthno_NO
dc.subjectWagesno_NO
dc.subjectDynamic CGE-modellingno_NO
dc.subjectEmploymentno_NO
dc.subjectManufacturingno_NO
dc.subjectJEL classification: F4no_NO
dc.titleIs Norway immune to Dutch Disease? CGE estimates of sustainable wage growth and de-industrialisationno_NO
dc.typeWorking paperno_NO
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Social science: 200::Economics: 210::Economics: 212no_NO
dc.source.pagenumber40 s.no_NO


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