| dc.description.abstract | Abstract:
Gazprom, the dominant gas company in Russia, is widely believed to be the key supplier of gas to
Europe in the foreseeable future. However, there are numerous uncertainties and challenges within
the Russian and European gas industry that may alter the allocation of Gazprom´s gas sales
between domestic and export markets. In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical models to
study potential effects on Russian gas exports from changes in Russian domestic gas prices and the
production capacities in 2015. We also investigate whether the liberalization of the European gas
markets may provide incentives for Gazprom to induce monopoly power in its export markets. Our
main findings suggest that both increased domestic gas prices and sufficient production capacities
are vital to maintain Gazprom´s market share in Europe over the next decade. At low domestic
prices, Gazprom may even have difficulties to carry out its long-term export commitments. However,
if export possibilities are ample due to both lower domestic demand at higher prices and high overall
production capacities, a large share of spot trades in Europe may encourage Gazprom to exercise
market power in its export markets.
Keywords: Russia, Natural gas, production capacity, export, Western Europe, price, numerical model | no_NO |
