Immigration to Norway 1969-2010 : effects of policies and EEA membership

Abstract

We examine how changes to regulations and the economic conditions have influenced gross immigration to Norway from, in principle, all countries in the world during 1969– 2010. In line with existing studies of immigration we find that economic factors were important for immigration to Norway. Income differences between Norway and other countries have the expected impact, as do changes in income distributions. The labour market situation has also been important in that lower unemployment in Norway has resulted in higher immigration and higher unemployment in the country of origin has led to higher emigration to Norway. We find that immigration policies have largely had the expected effects. One example is the 1975 ‘immigration halt’ that did have a strong and long lasting effect on total immigration to Norway. Further tightening of the immigration regulations that came in 1977 also reduced immigration, while the more liberal policies introduced in 1981 contributed to higher immigration. From 2000 to 2010 several changes linked to the enlargement of EU influenced immigration to Norway. Norway’s membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) in 1994, and in the Schengen-area in 2001 resulted in higher immigration while the 2004 and 2007 EU enlargements also increased labour immigration to Norway substantially. Keywords: Immigration, Immigration policies, Incentive variables

JEL classification: J11, J15 Sammendrag Innvandringen til Norge har økt gradvis og netto innvandringen har gjennomgående vært positiv og økende siden 1970. Etter utvidelsen av EU i 2004 har innvandringen skutt fart og har svingt rundt 70 000 i senere år. På 1970-tallet iverksatte myndighetene tiltak for å dempe innvandringen til Norge. På 1980-tallet var det en viss liberalisering igjen av politikken. Siden 1994 har endringen i innvandringen blitt sterkt påvirket av Norges tilknytning til EU. I denne studien analyserer vi hvordan ulike politiske tiltak og endringer i økonomiske omstendigheter har påvirket innvandringen til Norge. Tall for brutto innvandring fra i prinsippet alle land i verden til Norge fra 1969 til 2010 studeres.