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Adapt or withdraw? Evidence on technological changes and early retirement using matched worker-firm data

Hægeland, Torbjørn; Rønningen, Dag; Salvanes, Kjell G.
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/180279
Date
2007
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  • Discussion Papers [1011]
Abstract
Abstract:

Older workers typically possess older vintages of skills than younger workers, and they may suffer

more from technological change. Experienced workers may nevertheless have accumulated human

capital making them suitable for adopting new technologies. On the other hand, to adjust to new

technologies, workers must invest in training. This may not be worthwhile for the oldest workers, and

technological change may thus induce early retirement. If technological change occurs often,

workers will continuously invest in training, which may insulate them from the negative effect of

technological change. We exploit the approach by Bartel and Sicherman (1993) to identify this effect

by estimating the retirement response to technological change. We examine two hypotheses about

the effects of technological changes on early retirement for workers from the age of 50 to the

mandatory age of retirement at 67. First, we examine whether workers in firms with higher rates of

anticipated technological change retire later than workers in firms with lower rates of technological

change. Second, we examine if unanticipated technological change is positively correlated with

earlier retirement. We use a matched employer-employee data set with a rich set of controls for

worker, firm and local labour market characteristics, and firm level measures of anticipated and notanticipated

technological change. We find a negative correlation between early retirement and

anticipated technological change only for the oldest male workers (62 to 66). Further, we find a

higher probability of transition to retirement for workers above 60 for firms introducing new process

technologies.
Publisher
Statistics Norway, Research Department
Series
Discussion Papers;No. 509

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