Migration analysis and regional population projections

Abstract

The Central Bureau of Statistics in Norway has produced regional population projections for a long period, in which migration is projected by fixed rates of gross out-migration and fixed distribution of in-migrants among regions. During the last years we have completed a model called DREM (Demographic Regional Economic Model) with other migration assumptions, taking into account changes in regional labour markets. This paper is primarily concerned with the migration submodel of the DREM model.' We first give a short presentation of the whole model. Furthermore we describe how the migration submodel is estimated. The paper also presents some results of the regression analysis. Finally some proposals for the further work with the migration submodel are discussed.