dc.contributor.author | Stoknes, Per Espen | |
dc.contributor.author | Aslaksen, Iulie | |
dc.contributor.author | Goluke, Ulrich | |
dc.contributor.author | Randers, Jørgen | |
dc.contributor.author | Garnåsjordet, Per Arild | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-10-05T12:30:27Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-10-05T12:30:27Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-08 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1892-753X | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2787745 | |
dc.description.abstract | The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country’s economy, now facing financial climate risk and longterm declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist the transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sectoreconomic variables. We find that investing moderately in green offshore energy production can reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators of Norway's energy transitioning. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Statistisk sentralbyrå | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Discussion Paper;No. 958 | |
dc.rights | Navngivelse-DelPåSammeVilkår 4.0 Internasjonal | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.no | * |
dc.subject | Green transition | en_US |
dc.subject | Energy | en_US |
dc.subject | Petroleum | en_US |
dc.subject | Offshore wind | en_US |
dc.title | Plausible futures for the Norwegian Offshore Energy Sector: Business as Usual, Harvest or Rebuild? | en_US |
dc.type | Working paper | en_US |
dc.source.pagenumber | 44 | en_US |
dc.relation.project | Norges Forskningsråd: 268200 | en_US |