Structural break in the Norwegian LFS due to the 2021 redesign
Hungnes, Håvard; Skjerpen, Terje; Hamre, Jørn Ivar; Jansen, Xiaoming Chen; Pham, Dinh Quang; Sandvik, Ole
Working paper
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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3016827Utgivelsesdato
2022-08Metadata
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- Discussion Papers [1002]
Sammendrag
The labour force surveys (LFSs) on all Eurostat countries underwent a substantial redesign in
January 2021. To ensure coherent labour market time series for the main indicators in the Norwegian
LFS, we model the impact of the redesign. We use a state-space model that takes explicit account of
the rotating pattern of the LFS. We also include auxiliary variables related to employment and
unemployment that are highly correlated with the LFS variables we consider. The results of a parallel
run are also included in the model. This paper makes two contributions to the literature on the effects
of LFS redesign. First, we suggest a symmetric specification of the process of the wave-specific
effects. Second, we account for substantial fluctuations in the labour force estimates during the
Covid-19 pandemic by applying time-varying hyperparameters. Likelihood-ratio tests and
examination of the auxiliary residuals show the latter to be warranted.