Uncertainties in the Norwegian greenhouse gas emission inventory

Abstract

The uncertainty in the Norwegian greenhouse gas emission inventory has been investigated by a tier 2 analysis in 2011. A tier 2 analysis for the greenhouse gases was also performed in 2006, and the results from that analysis is given in Sandmo (2010). The uncertainty in the Norwegian emission inventory has also earlier been investigated systematically in three reports (Rypdal 1999; Rypdal and Zhang 2000; Rypdal and Zhang 2001). The first two of these three reports focused on the uncertainty in the greenhouse gas emissions, and the last report investigated the uncertainty in the emission estimates of long-range air pollutants. The report has been prepared by Statistics Norway, with financial support by the Climate and Pollution Agency._______ Abstract: The national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory is compiled from estimates based on emission factors and activity data and from direct measurements by plants. All these data and parameters will contribute to the overall inventory uncertainty. The uncertainties and probability distributions of the inventory input parameters have been assessed based on available data and expert judgements. Finally, the level and trend uncertainties of the national GHG emission inventory have been estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methods used in the analysis correspond to an IPCC tier 2 method, as described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC 2000) (IPCC 2000). Analyses have been made both excluding and including the sector LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry). The uncertainty analysis performed in 2011 is an update of the uncertainty analyses performed for the greenhouse gas inventory in 2006 and 2000.