Tariffs in a World Trade Model. An Analysis of Changing Competitiveness Due to Tariff Reductions in the 1960's and 1970's

Abstract

In 1979 the Research Group of the Central Bureau of Statistics estimated a model for world trade in manufactured goods, with particular emphasis given to the Norwegian export of such goods. The data used covered the years 1960 - 1977. In this period substantial tariff adjustments took place in all major industrial countries, and considerable efforts were therefore made to give a satisfactory treatment to tariffs in the theoretical as well as the empirical part of the work. A documentation has been presented in RAPPORTER from the Central Bureau of Statistics 79/29 "Modell for norsk eksport av bearbeidde industrivarer". In response to an inquiry from the Secretariat of EFTA, the present report is a translation of those parts of the original report, which dealt with the analysis of tariffs. Several changes were made in order to allow this report to be read independently of the Norwegian documentation. Moreover, new calculations on tariff indices were made to illustrate the significance of the Kennedy Round and of the creation of EFTA and EEC.